New Labour needs New Pragmatism

So, England has its first coalition government in a very long time (and the first hung Parliament since John Major's final days). The ConLib (or ConDem, which might be a more accurate phrase) coalition's axe is shining in the morning sun of the new government, ready to fall on just about every aspect of the country's policy. Until that axe falls, the majority of voters remain blissfully unaware of the imminent bloodshed. The budgetary echoes of Thatcher's first term are clear: riding high on popularity, while the center-left press point to impending doom; and just like Thatcher's first term, it wasn't until the effects of Howe's 1981 budget hit that people started to see the real effects of a 4% (compared with Osbourne's 25% target) cuts.

In 1981, I was 6. I only dimly remember parts of it; schools suddenly couldn't provide milk at lunch, riots, rumbling discontent from teachers, police and civil servants, criticisms that the United Kingdom's armed forces were no longer capable of doing very much at all, and ruminations on industrial action. My parents (both teachers, and active in Labour) were seeing the brunt of it, and more than anything I remember the sense of resentment at the dismembering of a lot of the institutions they had fought so hard to create. I also distinctly remember seeing homeless people sleeping in London for the first time; it didn't take long for them to go from an occasional sighting (selling hot chestnuts) to cardboard cities around Waterloo station. I also remember the after-effects well; waiting lists lasting months or years in the NHS, jumble sales at school to try and pay for books, homeless Miners sleeping on our couch, rioting. I remember our local policeman gradually descending from a friendly local bobby to a shell-shocked, terrified man after he was drafted to fight miners and rioters. I remember the despair amongst my friends "up north" as they realized that there was no chance of them finding work after school, and still remaining in their beloved Northern cities.

In the past decade, I've watched much of the Midlands transform into an impressive place (especially Birmingham), unemployment decline (especially in northern England), and the NHS return to being an enviable institution.

Now, I'm 34 and living in the USA. As Osbourne's axe falls (and I wait for a similar axe here, as the US catches the austerity bug), I read about 60,000 policeman being made redundant, hospitals expecting to close, replacement school buildings (and repairs) being cancelled, University closures, and welfare-to-work programs (one of the few unemployment benefits that's been shown to genuinely work) closing. It's an uncomfortable deja vu.
Yes, spending does have to come down - but does it really have to fall like this? Cutting a million jobs certainly isn't going to help an economy barely showing growth right now, and the need to stimulate growth with low interest rates risks inflation should the economy begin to move again. On top of that, the UK government's debt is cheap right now. Many of the gilts are owned by UK institutions (or the Government itself; I'm never quite sure how that one works), the rest are on very long-term repayment schedules. Debt repayments really aren't that bad right now, and the massive cuts just announced really won't reduce the total debt very much (just as in the 1980s, the debt came down when the economy resumed growth, leading to rising income - not when Government spending cuts came into force).
(As an aside, the redundancy package cost of laying off so many civil servants will be enormous - it's a tremendously expensive way to "save" money. All of the civil servants who don't find work will also be eligible for benefits - another significant cost. Everyone who loses a private-sector job because their public-sector customers are no longer around will also cost benefits, and no longer pay taxes. It's barely a win at all.)

England needs a credible, pragmatic opposition with both a heart and a keen mind. Yes, by all means trim fat wherever it is found. Yes, some of that will be painful - albeit not 60,000 police made redundant painful. But no, spending cuts don't have to take the form of a relentless, ideologically motivated attack on Government spending. Keep the programs that help people get back to work - they work, and employed people pay taxes rather than costing benefits. Keep investing in the future - an educated, skilled, healthy workforce is essential to a healthy longer-term future. Stop spending money invading other countries (Iraq, Afghanistan), purchasing expensive floating targets (super-carriers), building jet planes designed for the previous generation of conflict (Euro-fighter), and don't re-purchase missiles you'd never use anyway in the hopes of deterring someone - whomever they may be (Trident).

The problem is, just like the 1980s, after a defeat a party needs time to become a credible alternative again. Labour, as it stands, is not up to the task. Veering to the left probably won't help (see Michael Foot), although many left-wing principles are worth defending. Labour needs to get its act together with a new leader, and fast. Unlike the 1980s, ConLib does not have a large majority - and could crumble when the axe hits and voters see how bad things are becoming. If it weren't for the Falklands, Labour would have won in 1983 - despite Michael Foot's best efforts. Let's not make the same mistake again, and head firmly back to the center-left ground, offer a principled opposition platform of sensible debt reduction, growth and social justice. Labour needs a charismatic leader with vision, one ready to pounce when ConLib risks crumbling when Osbourne's axe falls.

The 1980s were bad enough the first time around - let's not do that again.