Electoral musings

The run-up to the Democratic convention was interesting. Obama's lead faded gradually, at one point leaving national races tied (and electoral college votes likely within 4 either way). Obama had a very successful international tour, and then a vacation; while on vacation, the McCain camp apparently decided that since they weren't doing well at all on issues, it was time to fight dirty. Considering McCain's hiring most of Bush's campaign team (the most successful negative/dirty fighting team so far), that's hardly surprising. They spewed forth everything from Obama working with a former terrorist (from when Obama was aged in single digits!), to Rezko (real estate issue), and of course - youth and inexperience.

The Democratic convention initially looked like Clinton was going to wreck things, but it turned around pretty well. Obama's selection of Biden for his VP slot is interesting - and very solid, if not brilliant. Biden really is good in just about every position in which Obama is weak - and would definitely be ready (in terms of experience/knowledge/leadership skills) for the top-job should Obama vanish for whatever reason. Biden's gaffe habit could be a problem, but so far he's been very disciplined. During the convention, the McCain negative attack ads intensified - quoting Hillary Clinton against Obama, bringing up experience again, etc. Interestingly, Obama floated a few negative response ads also - such as "how many houses does McCain have?" (apparently triggering a second set of Rezko attack ads back).
The result? A convention bounce from level to 9 points ahead on some averages, 6 on others. That's a pre-Obama address bounce, so who knows what the final bounce will be... or how short it will be, given McCain's next-day VP announcement.

So finally, McCain picks Sarah Palin. It's widely reported that he really wanted Lieberman or Ridge, or maybe even Romney - but two of those are pro-choice, one isn't even a Republican, and one is a Mormon. There were rumblings all week that if McCain picked one of his choices, his base would abandon him (maybe they would, who knows?). The result is that we have a really bizarre VP pick. It's either a brilliant move, or only mildly less ridiculous than Dan Quayle talking about Mars. Snap polling today says 14% of Americans approve of Palin, 17% dissaprove, and 68% don't know who she is. Until recently, you could definitely put me in the 68% camp!

So... who is she? Palin grew up in small town Alaska, and was heavily into sport. She has a degree in journalism, and has worked in tourism, sport, and as a beauty model (runner-up in Miss Alaska, presumably the only pageant involving parkas!). She apparently hunts, fishes, and has lots of children. She's a die-hard mega-conservative who makes Margaret Thatcher look like a leftist. She was a town (of 6,000 people, give or take a few) mayor, and then usurped an incumbent Republican governor in the primaries to steal his job - which she has had for 20 months (her only state-wide experience). She obtained her first passport last year, travelling to Kuwait to visit the Alaska national guard - her first trip outside of the country. A few months ago, she admitted that she (a) didn't know what a VP does, and (b) doesn't think it would be a very productive job. Lets hope for her sake that someone explained the role to her!
In the primary campaign for governor,

It will be really interesting to see how she fares. It's tempting to dismiss her as a lightweight, but that was the former Alaska governor's fate: he tried to talk issues, she was nice (and apparently hot - there are bumper stickers around saying "Alaska - we're cold, but our governor's hot"). That may be enough to win Alaska, but I really hope that being hot isn't enough for the country...