Generational power transition, and the 2008 Presidential Election

Two things have really stuck me about the run-up to the 2008 election: the ages of the candidates, and the continual voter outcry for "change." More on the former in a bit; the rallying cry for "change" is interesting in that it echoes the not-so-successful Howard Dean campaign of 2004, and had shadows (poorly portrayed) in John Kerry's eventual bid for power. It also echoes the 1997 UK election, in which Blair and New Labour heavily touted their credentials to change Britain (this is not all that surprising, as political trends in Europe are typically 10-15 years ahead of those found in the USA). Unlike in 2004, when a highly-vocal but poorly motivated young crowd support Dean, this time the changists are well-organized, and are making heavy - and very successful - use of the modern communications landscape. That said, it remains to be seen if 2008 is the year for change; it is still entirely possible that McCain's "steady as she goes" approach will defeat Obama's hungry youth.

The age of various recent presidential candidates/Presidents may provide a clue towards the "anythink but what we have now" mentality of many younger voters. President Reagan was born in 1911, meaning that World War II and the rise of the Soviet Union would mark his likely formative influences. Presient George H. Bush Senior was born in 1921; like Reagan, that would make WWII and the 1950s his formative influences. (Interestingly, Dick Cheney - to whom both Presidents ascribed a strong influence to the point that some commentators have referred to three Presidencies as being Cheney's legacy was born in 1941; more on this below.). President Clinton was born in 1946, making the Vietnam war a formative influence on his youth, as well as the assassination of Kennedy, the moon-landing, and the 70s depression. President George W. Bush Jnr. was also born in 1946.
Current candidates: Senator John McCain was born in 1936, making him only 10 at the end of WWII, rendering the 1950s his formative years, and Vietnam (in which he served, and was captured as a prisoner of war) a likely pivotal moment. Hillary Clinton was born in 1947, very close to her husband. Barack Obama was born in 1961 - meaning that his formative influences would be the late 1970s, Reaganomics, and the slow-death of the Cold War. Howard Dean, interestingly, was born in 1948 - placing him in the same generation as the Clintons.

Why is this relevant? Much academic mileage has resulted from discussions of the various generations in America. You have the Baby Boomers (1946-1958), the Echo Boomers (a.k.a Jones' Boomers; 1958-early 1960s), Generation X (1960s-1970s), Generation Y (1980s-90s) etc. Traditionally, generations have been assigned some general traits. In particular, Baby Boomers are known for fierce individualism, lack of long-term planning, criticizing modern youth (mostly regarding work ethic and achivement), sometimes for excessive feathering of their own nests, and being the first generation to be sandwiched between still-living relatives and children. The Echo Boomers are more of a bridge-generation; they suffered through some of Vietnam and the 70s, and were often quite polarized by the Reagan years. Generation X are known for being cynical, anti-establishment, and trying to find a balance between personal space and work; GenX is often cited as the first generation to say en-masse that a little-less pay is acceptable for more time with their family. GenX are also fiercely critical of many of the Boomers, often indicate resentment as to the world handed down to them, and are known for not believing in company loyalty (often stating that it is a bad thing, given that companies don't show any loyalty back).

Reagan, Bush Senior and McCain pre-date the boomers - although all three have advisors and political circles heavily dominated by boomers (in particular Dick Cheney and his neo-con cohorts). Both Clintons, Bush Junior, and Howard Dean are all Boomer-generation. Obama is somewhere between an Echo Boomer and an early Generation X. (Tony Blair was born in 1953, but is considered post-boom because the UK Baby Boom didn't last very long at all).

It would appear that there are three generations here, although the Echo Boom is more of a transitional period than a well-defined sociological period; the pre-boomers (advised by boomers), the boomers (advised by GenX), and a GenX candidate (advised by GenX and Y).

Is it possible that the mantra for "change" is really a restatement of the need for the Boomer generation to pass the torch on to their younger brethren? It will happen inevitably, but the divisive, nasty politics of the late-Boomers has left many younger generations dissilusioned, and fearful for the future.