Hats off to Obama - and his speechwriter!

It is too early to say, but I may have guessed wrongly about Obama. If Iowa is any indication, he really is tapping into this country's desire for change in a very strong way. I still think that Clinton will prove hard to beat, because of her experience, political tenacity, and shoulder-rubbing with the bigwigs; but Obama really seems well-placed to slingshot the giant.

I really have to tip my hat to Obama's speechwriter(s). His acceptance speech was excellent. It's great to hear a speech without attacks on other candidates, just focussed on positives and campaign objectives - and while it's very populist, the populism is nicely tinged with potential reality and existing achievements (such as health-care reform in Illinois).

At this point, I hope he wins. My heart is for him, my head still fears he may not be ready.

On the Republican side, it was interesting to see how well Huckabee did. The evangelical bloc is very powerful in some states - so it will be even more enlightening to see how he does in New Hampshire. If he puts on a strong-showing there, in a state that typically isn't swayed by faith-based candidacy, then he really is tapping into the "Washington must change" vibe. If he doesn't, then it will be very interesting to see how it plays out: Bush got much of his support from the evangelical bloc, but also appealed to moderates and populists (many of whom regret their choice, I'm sure!).
I worry a little about the Republicans this time around. Huckabee seems quite pleasant these days, although his "no more income tax" (replaced entirely with sales tax) is a lot more regressive than people think. Above all, some of his comments from the past - particularly regarding homosexuality, AIDS, and women's rights (including abortion) are troublesome. He's recanted on two of those three - but do we really want a President who can't understand "Congress shall make no law..."
Romney is also an odd one. He has an odd mix of policies, and was definitely hampered in Iowa by being a Mormon. The LDS (Latter Day Saints) aren't very popular in any state they used to be based in - Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, especially. While I don't think Romney wants to overthrow the State Militia in armed struggle (that didn't work so well for Joseph Smith!), I do think that in the Midwest he is going to have a very hard time. Conversely, he might do well in Utah, Nevada, and the traditionally "couldn't care less about your faith" states. Polls currently show Romney and McCain as the only two candidates with any momentum in New Hampshire.
Finally, there's McCain. He's honest, I'll give him that. I disagree with much of what he says (particularly Iraq), but I never find myself disliking him - just his positions. He might make a decent President, although I'm not sure how well he'll do overall.

Ok, that wasn't finally. Lets not forget "Mr I.R.A.", Guilliani! He has the strangest strategy every seen in a set of primaries, seeking only to really fight the Super Tuesday states. If his gamble pays off and he does well on that day - he could win. I'll go out on a limb and say that he won't - by the time Super Tuesday comes along, other candidates will have momentum and positive press building. Super Tuesday almost always backs someone who has effectively already won...