I've been playing with swingometers (nothing pretty enough to display - it's a spreadsheet!), and average poll trends. If trends continued roughly in line with a 7-day rolling average, the next Parliament would look something like this:
Labour: 403 seats (-11 seats)
Conservative: 173 seats (+5 seats)
Liberal Democrat: 55 seats (+3 seats)
Other: 28 seats (no change)
(Interestingly, despite a net gain of seats, in this scenario there are 4 shadow cabinet members out of jobs! Michael Howard is safe, however - by about 8%) I don't think these numbers are quite right, I actually think that the Liberal Democrats will do better than that, at the expense of Conservatives more than Labour. That's my hunch, based on the "vote Blair to avoid Howard" sentiment seen in a lot of recent polls, and the fact that even the strongest Labour voters I know in the South-East are planning to vote tactically against the Tories this time. There is also some polling indication that Brown is bringing some loyal Labour voters back to the Labour column in Lab-Lib marginals. If you take my hunch and throw it into the mix, you get:
Labour: 404 seats (-10 seats)
Conservative: 170 seats (+2 seats)
Liberal Democrats: 57 seats (+5 seats)
Other: 28 seats (no change)
Note that all my numbers are messed up a little by the changes in
Mood: accomplished
Music: Rain hitting the roof
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