I have a few concerns about the election, particularly in Ohio. Diebold voting machines were used, and lacked a paper-trail - so we can't really trust the results. Voters were stuck in line for hours (they were still voting 5 hours after the polls closed!), and judicial orders to offer paper ballots to those waiting in line were ignored. Florida also used Diebold machines, although I suspect that the margin was great enough in the sunshine state that it didn't make a great deal of difference.
So why did the polls (including my math) get it wrong? There are a number of factors. The first is young-person turnout. Turnout was really low in young-person dominated areas; Boone County, for example, barely topped 55% turnout. Overall (nationwide), only 17% of the share of the vote was comprised of younger voters - despite a huge increase in registrations and turnout. Thousands of youngsters will apparently turnout to support Kerry at a rally (with Springsteen playing), and then not vote. Disgraceful, in my opinion. Exit polls are showing that a lot of the increase in voter turnout was comprised of Republicans bussing in evangelical groups. They are also indicating that the undecided camp didn't really swing one way or the other - they didn't vote at all! That threw out conventional wisdom on 2/3 undecideds favouring the challenger, at which point the polls were actually about right - and the favoured interpretation of the polls was wrong. There was also the very late October surprise, Usama Bin Laden's videotape intervention. Despite the fact that this really should have served to remind Americans that Bin Laden is not only on the loose, but stronger than ever - it didn't. Instead, it reminded them that Bush is "going after terrorists" - and gave him a decent last minute poll boost. I wonder if this would be the case if the tape had gone out unedited, with the criticism of Kerry intact.
Anyway, Bush won and we're stuck with it. I'm pretty bummed about it, to be honest, since this means an enlivened attack on our civil liberties, religious freedoms, more absurd foreign policies (look out Iran!), more deficits, more poverty, even worse healthcare, and is likely to be seen as an endorsement of the neo-cons in the Pentagon. That said, there isn't much question about Bush's victory, and it's hard to say that he isn't legitimately President, this time. So, much as I did when Thatcher was in power, I'll accept the verdict, and remain a vocal opponent of whatever perceived wrongdoing I may find.
A plea to everyone as depressed about this as I am: don't give up on politics. We have the chance to make Bush a lame duck when Senate/House elections come along next time. Bush doesn't have the 60 votes required to beat a Senate philibuster; make concerns known to your Senators, make noise about the issues, and let the checks and balances keep a curb on things. Use the judicial system to continue challenging injustice. It's really easy to cry, become truly apathetic/alienated, and just give up - but that just ensures that things get worse.
I do wonder about the Democrats, now. Dean transformed the party, and the grass-roots mobilized as never before - and turned out to be irrelevant, because the grass-roots who shout so loudly don't get off their butts to vote. Daschle is gone, so the Senate Democrats are probably going to change a lot. The Democrats were very badly defeated outside of urban areas across the country. Something is going to have to change, and I suspect that there will be much soul-searching. My suggestion is to find a charismatic candidate who talks about important issues. Bill Clinton was a great candidate - we need to clone him!
Mood: sad
Music: None
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