First Presidential Debate

To my shame, I felt really sick and slept through the actual debate. I watched it on FoxNews webcast a few hours after it happened. I'd completely forgotten to get MythTV to record it - I've corrected that, and the VP debate and next Presidential debates are now scheduled for recording.

I've been researching context/importance of the debates. The first thing to note is that in previous elections, the debates have been very important in persuading swing voters. Polling shows that a theoretical 100% capture of swing voters who say the debates will largely make up their mind would put either candidate 18 points ahead; this isn't going to happen, but it's a good snapshot. The second thing to note is that immediate reaction isn't necessarily what matters; every immediate reaction poll showed Gore winning the first 2000 debate by about 8 percentage points, but after 48 hours he was widely judged to have lost it. Interestingly, he wasn't judged to have lost it on the grounds of substance, but rather because of "reaction shots" showing him sighing, looking angry/impatient, and his demeanour. This gels with earlier debate polling showing that style is often more important than substance, unless you have both in spades - Ross Perot, Clinton, and Carter all benefited from substance and passable style. Reagan won entirely on style, as did Bush in 2000.

I enjoyed the debate. Kerry did a very good job of staying on message, on the offensive, and of giving good counter-arguments to every Bush jibe. President Bush really did badly; the all-important reaction shots showed him grimacing, flinching, clutching his stomach, and at times looking like a 7th-grader being told off for throwing stones. He often had a hard time filling his time slots, and kept going back to repeating the same phrases over and over (much like the "lockbox" from Gore's much ridiculed 2000 debates). His substance was generally lacking, although he did at least seem to largely know what was going on. I really liked his gaffes; "Of course we are going to catch Saddam Hussein - I mean Osama Bin LAden", referring to terrorists as "folks", and when asked about the Iraq threat stating "they, the enemy, attacked us". When it was pointed out that Al-Quaida attacked, he replied "urrrrm, I know that Osama Bin Laden attacked us! I knew that."

Kerry's oratory was interesting. He used short sentences, and made sucinct points - but still layered facts in a very convincing way. He was also studiously calm, keeping a perfect poker face, merely nodding and taking notes during the debate.

The initial reaction was very interesting. Snap online polls on "who won" showed Kerry averageing 70% and Bush 30%. Polls of undecided voters also concluded that Kerry came out ahead by a large margin, and several voters said they would now vote for him - and most said they now felt more favourably towards him. The morning press was full of Kerry praise, with even the Houston Chronicle and the Arizona Wildcat grudgingly praising Kerry. It is interesting that even Republican spinmiester Roe was only able to say that the debate "left things about the same, us with a small advantage".

We won't know if those initial reactions are relevant for another few days. I hope they are, and I hope that Kerry can keep the momentum up. We need the Comeback Kerry right now!
Mood: tired
Music: Queen - Tie Your Mother Down